Feb 27 is Oscar night. Pundits have been busy predicting outcomes for the last several weeks now. I am sure you have a few of your own, and may even have bet a few quid with friends, family, and colleagues.
But have you checked out the Hollywood Stock Exchange's (HSX) predictions? The HSE is a digital community that allows members to buy and sell "stock" in the nominees. Each nominee is given a stock symbol. Community members trade the stocks they like and can therefore bid up, or down, the price of various nominees, based on their beliefs and preferences.
So, who's leading the pack? Around 14:00 EST (Feb. 27), the "stock price" leaders for Best Picture, Actor, Actress, and Director, and hence the favorites to win are:
- Best Picture - The King's Speech; ticker symbol A1PTKS, has the highest quote, selling at H$17.49. Yup, the HSE has its own currency! The closest competitor - The Social Network (A1PTSN) - is trading at a distant H$2.42. Close to a sure bet, would you say?
- Best Director - David Fincher (A1DDF1) for The Social Network, trading at H$13.39. The closest competitor - Tom Hooper (A1DTHO) for The King's Speech, trading at H$8.43 (though on a downward tick).
- Best Actress - This one seems to be a no-contest. Natalie Portman (A1CNPO) for the Black Swan is way ahead of the pack; trading at H$20.16 and rising. All other contenders are trading in single digits.
- Best Actor - is shaping up as a no-contest as well. Colin Firth (A1ACFI) for his role in The King's Speech, is trading at H$22.19, and rising, and commands a huge lead over his competitors.
There is still time to play and win; play money that is. Those who successfully pick winners will get a play money dividend of H$25. Either way, whether you play or merely watch tonight, I will be back tomorrow comparing the actual results against predictions. The HSX traders seem to be very sure of themselves, they are not hedging their bets.
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